~ From the Braintrust ~
From the Braintrust: WIAA Seeding Process For Football is Flawed, Needs Fixing
With Level 1 of the Football Playoffs set to kick off tonight at 7:00 across the state, football fans throughout Wisconsin are eager to see high school football at its best. The energy at playoff football games is amazing, and we are sure to see some amazing games at all divisions. Teams are ready. Fans are ready. Playoff Football is where itś all at. Teams have done their homework, but the same cannot be said for the WIAA.
Too bad the seeding process used in Wisconsin is flawed, and a closer look at multiple examples of how teams are seeded shows the formula´ used by the WIAA needs some fixing.
Letś back up a second. ´Formula´ is a rather loose term used to describe what is used. After all, all that is disclosed are ćriteria´ used to determine how teams are seeded. Not exactly transparent, the following criteria are used by the WIAA, found in their playoff information:
WIAA Football SEEDING PROCEDURES
Seeding will be conducted electronically. The seeding program will be run on the Saturday after the last regular season game WIAA will release pairings to the media.
2. (2) Electronic seeding will be based on the following factors:
• Team’s Win Percentage
• Opponents’ Win Percentage
• Opponents’ Opponents Win Percentage
• Defeated Opponents’ Win Percentage
• Defeated Opponents’ Opponents Win Percentage
• Historical Conference Playoff Win Percentage
• Historical Team Playoff Win Percentage
• Strength of Loss Game Value
• Computer Random Draw
Note: Forfeit wins count only for playoff qualifying. Forfeits will not count in seeding criteria. Rescheduled contests on the week of a forfeiture will count in seeding for both teams.
The above criteria are used in seeding, but the weight each factor carries, is, well, a secret. Formula? We are kept in the dark about how these factors are used, but is it a formula if only a select few know how these factors are used?
Errors in 2022 seeding
Letś take a look at a few seeding misalignments and irregularities to point out why the seeding system needs fixing.
Assumption: #3 in Division 7
Auburndale: #3 in Division 6
Colby: #4 in Division 5
… and many more irregularites exist…
Assumption finished with an 8-1 record, a narrow loss to Pepin/Alma(9-0, Dairyland conference champion) In the Royals’ bracket is #1 Cashton, 9-0, conference champ. No issue there. The #2 seed? Black Hawk/Warren, IL(4-3 – Six Rivers, 6-3 overall). The Royals have reason to challenge the seeding legitimacy. The factors used in the process penalize Assumptionś dominance this season, and reward Black Hawk/Warren IL due to being blessed to be in a conference with teams who have fared well. Should the fact that Black Hawk/Warren was BLOWN OUT in their two matchups with co-conference champs Potosi/Cassville and River Ridge matter? Hmm, ponder that one.
Auburndale and Colby present a two-pronged approach for attacking the seeding process legitimacy. The Marawood had tri-conference champions(Auburndale, Colby and Edgar) all at 8-1. A closer look shows Colby with a convincing 32-6 win over Edgar, Edgar then edging Auburndale 21-14 and Auburndale picking up a 20-14 win over Colby. Each team with one loss against a top team and co-conference champ. Hmm. Take a look at the season results, too, points for/against:
- Auburndale (198/63)
- Colby(261/88)
- Edgar(220/61)
Lest we forget, the Marawood has a fourth team in the playoffs, Pittsville. The Panthers were 3-4 in conference play, 3-6 overall. Strength of schedule I guess mattered here, after all, playing against the top three helped Pittsville earn a… #6 seed.
The fact that the WIAA system for seeding(cannot really see it as a formula) weighs historical performance by teams and conferences loses its value here. Edgar – longtime state power, Colby enjoying a resurgence in power with a state championship last season, and Auburndaleś results this year, point to questions here.
Auburndale was given a #3 seed,behind #2 Mondovi(second place in Cloverbelt)
Colby was given the #4 seed, behind: Aquinas(#3, second place in conference) #2 Northwestern(9-0, conference champ) and #1 St. Croix Falls(8-1, second place in conference) Yes, that is correct. Northwestern defeated SCF for a perfect 9-0 record but earned the second seed. Cannot make this stuff up…
In the attempt to be develop a more accurate seeding process, powers-to-be and decision makers seemingly were caught up in the rush to create a system that was better, but actually is far worse than what Wisconsin once had in place. Sometimes working with fancy numbers and statistics can cloud the picture, after all.
The Braintrust notes that creating computer rankings, developing formulas in sports analytics and applying statistics are not simple tasks. The process can be complicated and messy at times. Itś time the WIAA look at tweaking the football seeding process, and collaborating with those who have knowledge and insight to share should be considered.
Solutions are out there. Schools and teams deserve it.
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Author: David Keech
David Keech is a retired teacher and works as a sportswriter, sports official and as an educational consultant. He has reported on amateur sports since 2011, known as 'KeechDaVoice.' David can be reached at [email protected]
