New Study Reveals States Where Violent Criminals Escape Justice
- California leads the list of the states where the most criminals are still at large with nearly 119K unsolved violent crimes, the biggest number.
- Only 30% of violent crimes in Florida are solved, the lowest rate among top 10 states.
- Population density creates dramatic variations in criminal concentration, with urban areas showing up to 14 times more criminals per square mile than rural regions with similar crime rates.
A recent study by Spartacus Law Firm aimed to rank U.S. states with the highest number of criminals still at large. Data was collected on violent crime rates, the solve rate, and unsolved crimes, along with population and land area metrics. Calculations determined the number of unsolved violent crimes and adjusted for population and geographic factors. The final ranking was based on “Criminals at Large per sq mi Adjusted by Population,” with California leading due to its high concentration of unsolved crimes relative to both population and land area.
| State | Violent Incidents (homicide, aggravated assault, robbery, and rape) per 100k (2024) | Violent Incidents Reported (2024) | Solve Rate (2024) | Unsolved Violent Crimes | Criminals at Large per 100k People | Criminals at Large per sq mi Adjusted by Population |
| California | 508 | 198,036 | 40% | 118,822 | 300 | 302.54 |
| Tennessee | 628 | 44,769 | 39% | 27,309 | 86 | 210.96 |
| Massachusetts | 314 | 21,998 | 50% | 10,999 | 108 | 143.80 |
| Maryland | 426 | 26,338 | 39% | 16,066 | 223 | 119.26 |
| Florida | 290 | 65,621 | 30% | 45,935 | 407 | 96.77 |
| New York | 390 | 76,298 | 58% | 32,045 | 286 | 76.23 |
| Rhode Island | 168 | 1,839 | 47% | 975 | 17 | 52.50 |
| New Jersey | 221 | 20,564 | 48% | 10,693 | 500 | 31.11 |
| Michigan | 457 | 45,888 | 45% | 25,238 | 433 | 26.04 |
| Illinois | 310 | 38,915 | 45% | 19,458 | 279 | 24.42 |
See the full research here.
California tops the ranking as the U.S. state with the most criminals still at large, having 303 criminals per square mile adjusted by population. The state reported the highest absolute number of violent incidents at 198K, with 60% remaining unsolved. This results in nearly 119K violent criminals still at large, compounded by California’s large population and urban concentration.
Tennessee comes in second with a population-adjusted 211 criminals per square mile. The state has the highest violent incident rate per 100K people at 628, significantly higher than California’s 508. Tennessee’s solve rate of 39% is nearly identical to California’s, yet with a much smaller population, resulting in fewer total unsolved crimes but a high concentration per area.
Massachusetts ranks third, reaching 144 offenders per square mile when population-adjusted. Despite having a solve rate of 50%, Massachusetts’s relatively small geographic area intensifies the concentration of criminals at large per square mile. The state’s violent incident rate of 314 is half that of Tennessee’s.
Maryland follows in fourth with 119 criminals per square mile. Maryland’s solve rate of 39% matches Tennessee’s exactly, but Maryland’s higher population density results in a different distribution pattern of unsolved crimes. With a violent incident rate of 426, Maryland reports more violence than Massachusetts but fewer total incidents due to population differences.
Coming in fifth, Florida registered 97 at-large violent offenders per square mile when adjusted for population. The state has the lowest solve rate among all top 10 states at just 30%, 9 percentage points below Maryland’s rate. This poor clearance rate results in nearly 46K unsolved violent crimes, almost triple Massachusetts’.
New York ranks sixth with a population-adjusted density of 76 criminals per square mile. The state has the highest solve rate among the top ten at 58%. New York’s violent incident rate of 390 is lower than Maryland’s, yet its larger population results in more total violent incidents than any state except California.
Rhode Island ranks 7th with 53 criminals per square mile adjusted by population. The state reports the lowest absolute number of violent incidents at just 1,839 and the lowest violent incident rate at 168.
New Jersey ranks 8th, showing a concentration of 31 unsolved violent offenders per square mile after population adjustment. New Jersey’s solve rate of 48% is slightly better than Rhode Island’s 47%, but its higher violent incident rate translates to substantially more unsolved crimes. With 10,693 unsolved cases, New Jersey has nearly eleven times the number of unresolved violent crimes as Rhode Island.
Michigan ranks 9th with a population-adjusted figure of 26 criminals per square mile. Michigan’s violent incident rate of 457 is more than double New Jersey’s 221, while its solve rate of 45% is 3 percentage points lower. These factors combine to create a total of 25,238 unsolved violent crimes, more than double New Jersey’s figure.
Illinois rounds out the top ten 10th, recording 24 at-large violent criminals per square mile when adjusted for population. The state maintains similar statistics to neighboring Michigan, with identical solve rates of 45%. Illinois reported almost 39K violent incidents in 2024, resulting in approximately 19,458 unsolved crimes.
Chandon Alexander, CEO of Spartacus Law Firm, commented on the study:
“The concentration of violent criminals at large in urban centers reveals a complex interplay between criminal justice resources, population density, and geographic constraints. This geographic lens shifts the conversation from comparing solve rates to considering how unresolved crimes create “hot zones” of impunity. Law enforcement agencies might benefit from targeted resource allocation based on these density metrics rather than raw crime statistics. The stark differences between states with similar solve rates but vastly different criminal concentrations suggests that traditional policing approaches may need regional customization, particularly in states where criminals benefit from proximity to jurisdictional boundaries or transportation networks that facilitate mobility after committing violent acts.”
Story credit: https://spartacuslawfirm.com/.
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Author: David Keech
David Keech is a retired teacher and works as a sportswriter, sports official and as an educational consultant. He has reported on amateur sports since 2011, known as 'KeechDaVoice.' David can be reached at keechertheteacher@gmail.com
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