Conventional wisdom has NFL coaches going for the extra point in just about every case, but a careful analysis proves going for two should happen far more often.
As Benjamin Morris shares in his article with fivethiryeight.com, the mathematics AND historical results prove going for two should be happening far more often. This is especially true since extra points were moved back to the 15 yard line.
With a penalty after a touchdown, and the try for two is at the one yard line, going for two is mostly a no-brainer.
| GOING FROM A LEAD OF | … GIVES YOU THE TACTICAL BENEFIT OF | … AND A WIN PROBABILITY CHANGE OF | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | to | 1 | The lead | +8.4 |
| 1 | to | 2 | A generic point | +1.8 |
| 2 | to | 3 | Puts you up a field goal | +6.5 |
| 3 | to | 4 | Puts you up more than a field goal | +5.0 |
| 4 | to | 5 | A generic point | +2.9 |
| 5 | to | 6 | Puts you up two field goals | +3.1 |
| 6 | to | 7 | Puts you up a touchdown | +5.2 |
| 7 | to | 8 | Puts you up a TD with a 2-point conversion | +3.3 |
| 8 | to | 9 | Puts you up two scores | +2.9 |
| 9 | to | 10 | Puts you up by a touchdown and a field goal | +2.2 |
| 10 | to | 11 | Puts you up by a TD with a 2-point conversion and a FG | +1.3 |
| 11 | to | 12 | Puts you up more than a touchdown and a field goal | +1.1 |
| 12 | to | 13 | Puts you up a touchdown and two field goals | +0.4 |
| 13 | to | 14 | Puts you up two touchdowns | +1.0 |
| 14 | to | 15 | Puts you up two TDs with a 2-point conversion | +0.5 |
| 15 | to | 16 | Puts you up two TDs with two 2-point conversions | +0.7 |
| 16 | to | 17 | Puts you up three scores | +0.2 |
| EST. CHANGE IN WIN PROB. IF YOU GET … | EST. CHANGE IN WIN PROB. IF YOU GET … | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARGIN AFTER TD | +1 | +2 (VS. +1) | BETTER OPTION | MARGIN AFTER TD | +1 | +2 (VS. +1) | BETTER OPTION |
| -15 | 0.5 | 1.0 | Two | 0 | 8.4 | 1.8 | One |
| -14 | 1.0 | 0.4 | One | 1 | 1.8 | 6.5 | Two |
| -13 | 0.4 | 1.1 | Two | 2 | 6.5 | 5.0 | One |
| -12 | 1.1 | 1.3 | Same | 3 | 5.0 | 2.9 | One |
| -11 | 1.3 | 2.2 | Two | 4 | 2.9 | 3.1 | Same |
| -10 | 2.2 | 2.9 | Two | 5 | 3.1 | 5.2 | Two |
| -9 | 2.9 | 3.3 | Same | 6 | 5.2 | 3.3 | One |
| -8 | 3.3 | 5.2 | Two | 7 | 3.3 | 2.9 | Same |
| -7 | 5.2 | 3.1 | One | 8 | 2.9 | 2.2 | One |
| -6 | 3.1 | 2.9 | Same | 9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | One |
| -5 | 2.9 | 5.0 | Two | 10 | 1.3 | 1.1 | Same |
| -4 | 5.0 | 6.5 | Two | 11 | 1.1 | 0.4 | One |
| -3 | 6.5 | 1.8 | One | 12 | 0.4 | 1.0 | Two |
| -2 | 1.8 | 8.4 | Two | 13 | 1.0 | 0.5 | One |
| -1 | 8.4 | 8.4 | Same | 14 | 0.5 | 0.7 | Same |
We’re going to go a lot further with this, but even this first cut of analysis reveals a couple of important cases where the conventional wisdom is wrong. In particular:
- If you’re down 8 points after scoring a touchdown (with 10 minutes left), you should go for 2, because the difference between being down 7 points (if you make the extra point) and being down 6 points (if you convert the 2) is greater than the difference between being down 7 points and being down 8 points (if you miss the 2-point conversion). Note that this is backed up by the numbers but should also be apparent intuitively.6
- If you’re down 4 points after scoring a touchdown (with 10 minutes left), you should go for 2, because being down 2 points instead of 3 helps you more than being down 4 points instead of 3 hurts you. This one is a bit more counterintuitive, but if you think ahead, the sec
Read the complete article HERE
Bleep-bloop-bleep — that was easy. Now let’s combine all of that into one chart:
In the chart above, orange means go for 2, purple means kick the extra point.9 Each vertical line within each mini-chart represents a range from a terrible 2-point conversion team (40 percent conversion rate) at the bottom to an amazing one (55 percent) at the top. That range is pretty wide and should cover most knowable matchup advantages, like facing a particularly good defense, having injured players, it being windy, your team being an underdog, etc. (We’ll disregard how these excuses seem to lead every coach to make the same decisions every time.)
But enough about how to read the chart — here are some of the main things that popped out at me:
- When a team is down 2, it should go for 2 — pretty much any time, but especially in the third quarter and beyond.
- As previously noted, being down 8 and being down 4 in the fourth quarter are clear “go” situations. Yet no coach has gone for 2 in either of these spots in the past two years. The NFL’s extra point rule change practically begged coaches to go for 2 more often, and not one has tried to pluck even a single one of the lowest hanging fruit.
- Cases like going for 2 when up 5 or 8 early (aiming to go up 7 or 10) show small but fairly clear advantages. They may not be super costly, but mistakes are mistakes.
- When down 9 points late-ish, there’s a case that you should go for 2, because being down 8, you would have to go for 2 to draw even eventually anyway, and it’s better to know whether you converted your attempt earlier so you can make tactical adjustments. Although this logic seems sound, the data doesn’t suggest the effect is very significant (if it exists at all).
| SITUATION | WHAT COACHES DID | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MARGIN | QUARTER | BETTER TO GO FOR 2? | CORRECT DECISIONS | CLEARLY INCORRECT DECISIONS | AVG. WIN PROB IMPACT OF MISTAKES |
| -8 | 4th | ✓ | 0 | 27 | -0.90 |
| -4 | 4th | ✓ | 0 | 19 | -1.92 |
| -11 | 4th | ✓ | 0 | 16 | -0.38 |
| -8 | 3rd | ✓ | 0 | 13 | -0.79 |
| -15 | 4th | ✓ | 0 | 9 | -0.16 |
| -11 | 3rd | ✓ | 0 | 6 | -0.51 |
| -5 | 3rd | ✓ | 1 | 5 | -0.71 |
| -2 | 3rd | ✓ | 4 | 5 | -1.02 |
| -15 | 3rd | ✓ | 0 | 4 | -0.21 |
| -6 | 4th | ✓ | 0 | 2 | -0.33 |
| -13 | 3rd | ✓ | 0 | 2 | -0.31 |
| -17 | 3rd | ✓ | 1 | 2 | -0.22 |
| +1 | 3rd | ✓ | 4 | 2 | -0.93 |
| +11 | 4th | 5 | 2 | -0.28 | |
| +12 | 4th | ✓ | 7 | 2 | -0.24 |
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Author: David Keech
David Keech is a retired teacher and works as a sportswriter, sports official and as an educational consultant. He has reported on amateur sports since 2011, known as 'KeechDaVoice.' David can be reached at [email protected]
